Last Updated on August 8, 2026
BigBear.ai (BBAI) is a specialized defense and security AI company that has seen its stock plummet 70% from its 52-week high of $9.39 to around $2.79. The company reported Q2 2026 revenue of $36.7 million, up 13% year-over-year, with gross margin expanding to 32.8% from 25.0%. However, the company remains unprofitable with a net loss of $25.7 million. BigBear.ai achieved a major milestone by eliminating $124.6 million in debt, leaving only $16.5 million remaining and $410 million in cash. The Ask Sage acquisition has been central to margin expansion, providing secure GenAI capabilities for government customers with FedRAMP High authorization. Backlog stands at $270 million, and the company reaffirmed full-year 2026 revenue guidance of $135-$165 million. Analysts rate the stock Hold with average price targets of $4.00-$5.00, but the stock faces headwinds including slow revenue growth, persistent losses, government dependency, and 30% short interest.
What Is BigBear.ai?
BigBear.ai is a specialized defense and security technology company providing mission-ready artificial intelligence solutions to government and commercial customers. Founded in 2020 through a merger of BigBear.ai and Pangiam, the company delivers AI-powered decision intelligence for national security, supply chain logistics, border security, and cybersecurity applications.
Headquartered in McLean, Virginia, BigBear.ai serves a concentrated customer base including the Department of Defense, intelligence community agencies, Department of Homeland Security, and critical infrastructure operators. The company’s solutions span generative AI platforms (Ask Sage), computer vision, biometrics, predictive analytics, and autonomous systems coordination.
The stock has experienced wild volatility since its public debut. BBAI hit a 52-week high of $9.39 before crashing approximately 70% to trade around $2.79. Today, the company carries a market capitalization of about $1.34 billion.
BigBear.ai Stock Performance: The Numbers
Current Price and Key Metrics
As of July 31, 2026, BigBear.ai stock (BBAI) trades at approximately $2.79 per share. Here’s where things stand:
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Current Price | $2.79 |
| 52-Week High | $9.39 |
| 52-Week Low | $2.59 |
| Market Cap | ~$1.34 billion |
| YTD Performance | -39.4% |
| Short Interest | 30.44% of shares outstanding |
| Short Ratio | 5.06 days to cover |
Stock Price History
BigBear.ai’s stock has been on a brutal roller-coaster ride. It surged to $9.39 in late 2024 before suffering a massive pullback that continues today. The stock is down approximately 70% from its peak and trades near its 52-week low of $2.59.
Key technical indicators:
- 50-day moving average: ~$3.70
- 200-day moving average: ~$4.78
- Shares outstanding: 478.95 million
- Float: 475.25 million shares
The high short interest (30.44%) suggests many investors are betting against the stock, reflecting skepticism about the company’s path to profitability.
Analyst Ratings and Price Targets
Analyst sentiment on BBAI has cooled significantly.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Analyst Consensus | Hold |
| Average Price Target | $4.00-$5.00 |
| Potential Upside | ~43-79% |
Two analysts currently cover the stock, both rating it Hold. Cantor Fitzgerald and Northland Securities both maintain $4 price targets. H.C. Wainwright had a $6 target (Buy rating) but coverage status is unclear.
Zacks Investment Research rates BBAI as a Rank #3 (Hold), though a separate Nasdaq article cited a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). This mixed sentiment reflects uncertainty about the company’s trajectory.
BigBear.ai Financials: Revenue Growth vs. Persistent Losses
Q2 2026 Performance
BigBear.ai reported Q2 2026 results on July 30, 2026, showing meaningful progress:
| Metric | Q2 2026 | Q2 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $36.7M | $32.5M | +13% |
| Gross Margin | 32.8% | 25.0% | +781 bps |
| Net Loss | ($25.7M) | ($228.6M) | Improved |
| Adjusted EBITDA | ($11.6M) | ($8.5M) | Worsened |
| Cash & Investments | $410M | — | — |
The dramatic improvement in net loss reflects non-cash factors: Q2 2025 included a goodwill impairment charge that did not recur in Q2 2026. The adjusted EBITDA loss actually widened due to increased sales, go-to-market, and R&D investments.
Q1 2026 Performance
Q1 2026 results showed similar patterns:
| Metric | Q1 2026 | Q1 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $34.4M | $34.8M | -1% |
| Gross Margin | 34.0% | 21.3% | +1,278 bps |
| Net Loss | ($56.8M) | ($62.0M) | Improved |
| Adjusted EBITDA | ($9.9M) | ($7.0M) | Worsened |
Full-Year 2025 Results
BigBear.ai closed 2025 with the strongest financial position in company history:
- Revenue: $127.7 million, down 19.3% from $158.2 million in 2024
- Gross margin: 22.3% (full year), down from 28.6%
- Net loss: ($293.9 million)
- Cash position: $462 million at year-end
The revenue decline was driven by lower volume on Army programs, which was partially offset by the Ask Sage acquisition closed in December 2025.
Debt Elimination: The Turning Point
BigBear.ai achieved a major financial milestone in January 2026 by eliminating the remaining $124.6 million of its 2029 convertible notes, primarily through debt-to-equity conversions. As a result, only about $16.5 million of debt remained at the end of Q1 2026, with management expecting that balance to be settled before the end of 2026.
Debt reduction impact:
- Interest expense reduced by $4.8 million year-over-year in Q1
- Strong balance sheet with $431.5 million in cash and investments at Q1 end
- Greater financial flexibility for growth initiatives and potential acquisitions
Full-Year 2026 Outlook
BigBear.ai reaffirmed its full-year 2026 revenue guidance of $135 million to $165 million. Management stated it is “on track for target 17% growth YoY by end 2026.”
Analysts project:
| Metric | 2026 Projection | 2027 Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $145.3M | $161.0M |
| Revenue Growth | +13.8% | +10.8% |
| EPS | -$0.07 | -$0.03 |
Ask Sage: The Generative AI Platform Driving Margins
Ask Sage is BigBear.ai’s most important product and the key to its margin expansion story.
What Is Ask Sage?
Ask Sage is a secure generative AI platform designed for government and defense customers. It provides access to over 150 AI models, including major models like ChatGPT, while operating in classified and air-gapped settings.
Key differentiators:
- FedRAMP High authorization
- Department of Defense Impact Level 5/6 classification
- Multi-model support without vendor lock-in
- Secure handling of classified and sensitive material
The platform already supports more than 16,000 users across thousands of government and enterprise teams.
Acquisition Impact
BigBear.ai closed the Ask Sage acquisition in December 2025 for an undisclosed amount. It represents the largest acquisition in BigBear’s history.
What Ask Sage brought:
- Higher-margin GenAI revenue stream
- Expanded government customer base
- Access to NASA, Army Intelligence and Security Command, and Naval Research Laboratory
- Secure AI capabilities for air-gapped environments
Customer Wins
Ask Sage has driven significant new business:
| Customer | Type |
|---|---|
| NASA | Generative AI platform |
| Army Intelligence and Security Command | Secure GenAI |
| Naval Research Laboratory | Generative AI |
| Classified intelligence customer | $53M sole-source contract |
CargoSeer and Other Growth Initiatives
CargoSeer Acquisition
BigBear.ai closed the CargoSeer acquisition in January 2026. CargoSeer provides AI-powered cargo inspection and fraud detection solutions for customs agencies.
Key developments:
- Five-year deployment in El Salvador
- Airport security projects at Chicago O’Hare and Dallas-Fort Worth
- Shipyard AI deployments with Chantier Davie and Bollinger Shipyards
ConductorOS and Autonomous Systems
BigBear.ai is expanding into autonomous systems coordination through ConductorOS, which orchestrates drone and autonomous systems. This represents a growth avenue beyond traditional analytics.
International Expansion
The company has expanded into the Middle East and Panama. The Panama partnership with Panama Transshipment Group places BigBear.ai squarely in the sights of global logistics operators.
Commercial Market Penetration
BigBear.ai is transitioning from a government pure-play to a diversified business with commercial customers. The company launched a broader commercial version of Ask Sage, expanding beyond government customers into critical infrastructure and defense-industry markets.
Competitive Landscape: How BigBear.ai Stacks Up
BigBear.ai faces intense competition from larger, more profitable players.
| Competitor | Ticker | Key Differentiator |
|---|---|---|
| Palantir Technologies | PLTR | Scalable software-centric model, larger scale, broader commercial adoption |
| C3.ai | AI | Enterprise AI software across industrial and government sectors |
| Leidos Holdings | LDOS | Diversified government contractor, deep DHS relationships |
| Booz Allen Hamilton | BAH | Decade of government relationships, stable earnings |
How competitors performed in 2026:
- C3.ai: -33.6% YTD
- Palantir: -28.7% YTD
- BigBear.ai: -39.4% YTD
While BigBear.ai underperformed its peers, it differentiates through specialized focus on mission-ready AI for border security, trade facilitation, and operator-centric solutions. The company also pursues a different strategic direction than Palantir, focusing on critical infrastructure logistics rather than pure SaaS growth.
Should You Buy, Hold, or Sell BBAI Stock?
The Bull Case
Strong margin expansion: Gross margin jumped to 34% in Q1 and 32.8% in Q2, up from 21-25% a year earlier, reflecting the higher mix of GenAI revenue.
Debt elimination: The company eliminated $124.6 million of debt, leaving only $16.5 million remaining with a strong $410-431 million cash position.
Growing backlog: Backlog increased 14% sequentially to $281.9 million in Q1 and reached $270 million in Q2, providing revenue visibility.
Contract wins: More than 20 new contracts in Q2, including a $53 million classified intelligence contract, multiple airport security projects, and new Ask Sage customers.
Ask Sage momentum: Secure GenAI platform with 16,000+ users, FedRAMP High authorization, and expanding customer base.
Acquisition integration: Ask Sage and CargoSeer fully integrated and performing well.
Analyst upside: Average price target of $4.00-$5.00 implies 43-79% upside from current levels.
The Bear Case
Persistent losses: Q2 2026 net loss of $25.7 million and adjusted EBITDA loss of $11.6 million. Analysts project losses through at least 2027.
Widening adjusted EBITDA loss: Adjusted EBITDA loss worsened to -$11.6 million from -$8.5 million due to investment spending.
Slow revenue growth: Revenue growth decelerated to 13% in Q2 after Q1 was flat. Full-year guidance of 17% requires significant acceleration.
High valuation relative to profitability: P/S ratio of 9.20-10.05 while unprofitable. This is higher than C3.ai’s 6.17 ratio.
Share dilution risk: Shares outstanding increased nearly 90% since early 2024. Further dilution likely if losses continue.
Government dependency: Business remains highly dependent on government spending, creating lumpy quarterly results.
Integration and execution risk: Ask Sage and CargoSeer integration could face challenges.
Stock price collapse: Down 70% from 52-week high with no clear bottom in sight.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is BigBear.ai stock a buy right now?
Analysts rate it Hold with a $4-$5 price target. The stock is down 70% from its high and trades near its 52-week low. Investors should weigh the company’s improving fundamentals against persistent losses and execution risks.
Why is BigBear.ai stock down so much?
The stock is down 70% from its 52-week high due to slow revenue growth, persistent losses, government spending volatility, and high short interest. The market is now rewarding profitable AI companies over growth-only stories.
What is BigBear.ai’s revenue growth?
Q2 2026 revenue grew 13% year-over-year to $36.7 million. Q1 2026 was flat. The company reaffirmed full-year 2026 revenue of $135-$165 million, implying 17% growth at the midpoint.
Is BigBear.ai profitable?
No. BigBear.ai posted a Q2 2026 GAAP net loss of $25.7 million and adjusted EBITDA loss of $11.6 million. Analysts project losses through at least 2027.
What is Ask Sage?
Ask Sage is BigBear.ai’s secure generative AI platform for government and defense customers. It provides access to 150+ AI models in classified environments with FedRAMP High authorization. It supports 16,000+ users across government and enterprise teams.
What is BigBear.ai’s backlog?
Backlog stood at $270 million at the end of Q2 2026, up 9% from year-end 2025. This represents about two times the company’s annual revenue forecast, providing some revenue visibility.
Conclusion
BigBear.ai has executed a remarkable financial turnaround. The company transformed a balance sheet that once carried heavy debt into one with $410 million in cash and only $16.5 million in debt. It acquired Ask Sage and CargoSeer, two specialized AI businesses that brought high-margin GenAI revenue and new government customers. Gross margins have expanded dramatically. Backlog has grown. Contract wins are accelerating.
But the stock market remains skeptical. BBAI is down 70% from its high. Short interest sits at 30%. Analysts rate it a Hold, not a Buy. The valuation, while lower than Palantir’s, is still high for an unprofitable company. Revenue growth must accelerate from 13% to the 17% annualized target to justify the current price.
BigBear.ai’s long-term story is compelling. The company is executing on its plan to become a leading AI provider for national security and critical infrastructure. If you believe in the defense AI thesis and have a multi-year time horizon, BBAI at $2.79 could be an attractive speculative entry point. The analyst consensus suggests significant upside.
But if you’re risk-averse or need near-term returns, caution is warranted. The company must demonstrate that Ask Sage and CargoSeer can drive revenue acceleration and that profitability is approaching. The high short interest means any disappointment could trigger further declines. As one analyst put it: “Until the company delivers clearer evidence of improving margins and a path toward consistent profitability, existing investors may prefer to remain cautious, while prospective investors may find better risk-reward opportunities elsewhere in the AI software space.”
Justin Powell is a writer at GramBrix.com who focuses on grammar, clarity and effective communication, helping readers strengthen their language skills.
